A Crystal Ball? Or, the Next Right Thing?

What do you think is going to happen to hiring? If I had a dollar for every time I got that question, I would be a rich woman.

The unfortunate reality is that none of us really know what will happen. Humans are unpredictable, and the government is even MORE unpredictable, and there are a whole lot of unseen forces at risk.

I remember the gut-wrenching feel of wading through a recession in 2008 — back then, I was an Executive Assistant (we all start somewhere!). While I only grasped a very small portion of the overall economy, what I did see was helping pack up people’s personal belongings. And in terms of life experience, I’ll put that against economic blueprints any day.

That being said, there are a few trends that have held steady over past recessions. While I do think 2022 will be different, I expect these trends to hold steady.

1. Good talent is still going to be hard to find.

   Today at Forge, we still have our highest number of job openings that we’ve ever had. Granted, part of that is our focus (accounting & finance, marketing, operations & HR). While some smaller companies are pulling back from hiring, most of our clients are actually intensifying their efforts to find the best candidate within the budget they have.
   
   Essentially, with today’s economic outlook, you can’t afford to get a hire wrong. The consequences are far too harsh. So we’re seeing clients come to us saying, “Hey, we don’t want to mess this up - I really need the right person for this role.”
   
   The other element is that candidates are often skittish during an economic pull-back. So you need someone, whether internal or external, who is really good at telling your story. Someone who can encapsulate the message of your brand, your company, and what we call “the sizzle”—why someone should want to work there.

2. Candidates will probably need to flex on remote work.

   Most of our clients are pulling people back to the office, either full-time or hybrid. To be honest, I don’t think a complete pull-back to in-office is smart right now, especially with the volatility in the marketplace. It is never good to take away a benefit that people have had for a long time.

   But — candidates need to be prepared to find jobs that are in their general locale. We have Charleston clients and a lot of candidates we’re talking to have moved down to Charleston during COVID - and now need to find a local job. So I foresee increased job market volatility due to people being pulled back into the office.
   
   And the truth is (as always) somewhere in the middle. I’m a big proponent of in-office. It has always worked well for my teams, and I find the personal connections and empathy hard to replace via Zoom or Teams. At the same time, the reality is that people like working from home. So we have to figure out a way to meet in the middle, where people will be happy and engaged.

3. Remember that turn-over costs you more than hiring a new person.

   I’ve seen a lot of talk - and even heard hiring managers say that they know XYZ will cost them their people. (Tesla, anyone?!) But the reality is that if your people are performing well, replacing them will cost you FAR more than anything else.

   It’s not just the cost of hiring—it’s the cost of onboarding, training, the lost industry knowledge, etc. It would be highly irrational and irresponsible for ANY company right now to become calloused in their approach to people. At the end of the day, your people are your greatest asset. They are the lifeblood of who you are, and they are real human beings with lives, and families, and homes.

So what do we see?

We see companies that are highly leveraged or in highly volatile industries struggling, and probably laying off or freezing hiring. We see companies that grew too fast and too carelessly doing the same thing.

Note to candidates: if you’re interviewing, ask the hard questions. Ask how companies handled COVID and furloughs and layoffs. That will tell you a lot about a company’s DNA.

We see hiring remaining very competitive for those hard-to-find skillsets. There are still more job openings than there is qualified talent in those niche roles.

Above all, if possible, hold onto your people. These are the times that will determine your future brand.

I worked for a company once that really struggled with handling an economic downturn. They furloughed and laid off very rapidly—and years later, they still have not recovered from this perception in the public eye. People remember how they are treated.

Put people first. Do the next right thing.

Our values have never felt more necessary than today. And we’re preaching to ourselves — because we all need reminders of what’s right and good and true.